The latest Trajectory ‘Slow Futures’ report highlights a slowly moving mega-trend that is unquestionably heading our way. They say:
There have only been two years where there were more deaths than births in the UK – 1976 and 2020. But, from 2029, deaths will outnumber births every year, for ever.
Fewer children in society is, to put it mildly, sub-optimal. Kids grow up to work in important, socially useful jobs and pay taxes.
Consequences:
- Political priorities and policies will favour older groups (as they will be the ones who decide elections)
- The country will get poorer as the dependency ratio (the relative number of working age people to non-working age people) will increase while tax receipts fall
- Facilities geared towards children will decline as demand reduces – e.g. Schools, soft-play, clubs…
With births and deaths headed where they are, only immigration will slow this inevitable change.